星期二, 10月 28, 2008

股 場 放 大 鏡 : 東 亞 拆 彈 波 及 同 業


上 市 公 司 「 地 雷 」 爆 完 一 單 又 一 單 , 繼 累 積 股 票 及 累 積 外 期 權 之 後 , 東 亞 銀 行 ( 023 ) 突 然 發 出 盈 警 , 表 示 由 於 考 慮 到 將 手 持 的 債 務 抵 押 證 券 ( CDO ) 持 有 至 到 期 的 話 , 投 資 組 合 的 剩 餘 價 值 或 進 一 步 大 幅 削 減 , 因 此 在 昨 日 發 出 通 告 前 已 全 數 出 售 以 上 投 資 工 具 , 連 同 上 半 年 已 入 賬 之 虧 損 13 億 元 , 共 錄 得 35 億 元 虧 損 , 因 此 令 全 年 純 利 同 比 大 幅 倒 退 。

東 亞 這 份 通 告 , 精 警 之 處 是 即 時 與 CDO 劃 清 界 線 , 並 強 調 除 以 上 損 失 之 外 , 銀 行 業 務 穩 健 , 及 將 繼 續 穩 健 , 可 能 是 吸 取 了 上 次 疑 似 擠 提 的 訓 , 留 有 尾 巴 的 話 後 果 可 大 可 小 。 東 亞 在 此 金 融 亂 世 沽 得 清 CDO 投 資 , 的 確 令 人 慶 幸 , 反 映 這 種 資 產 還 算 有 流 通 性 。

中 行 受 MBS 困 擾
東 亞 率 先 引 爆 這 個 次 按 資 產 炸 彈 , 其 他 銀 行 又 如 何 ? 由 於 其 他 若 干 中 小 型 銀 行 也 持 有 類 似 資 產 , 故 東 亞 拆 彈 , 卻 分 分 鐘 累 及 其 他 銀 行 , 若 其 他 銀 行 未 走 得 切 , 好 可 能 又 成 為 沽 售 借 口 , 昨 日 中 銀 香 港 ( 2388 ) 便 勁 跌 14% , 與 暴 跌 15% 的 東 亞 做 難 兄 難 弟 。

這 份 具 相 當 震 撼 性 的 通 告 , 有 可 能 在 市 場 早 有 流 傳 , 昨 日 眾 多 較 具 抗 跌 力 的 中 資 銀 行 股 亦 全 線 勁 跌 , 一 向 被 指 持 有 較 多 相 關 海 外 債 務 資 產 的 中 國 銀 行 ( 3988 ) 跌 近 15% , 而 招 行 ( 3968 ) 及 交 行 ( 3328 ) 也 大 跌 13% , 仿 似 世 界 末 日 。

業 績 報 告 顯 示 , 中 行 上 半 年 資 產 減 值 損 失 按 年 急 增 167.5% , 至 171.44 億 元 人 民 幣 , 其 中 證 券 投 資 ( 主 要 為 美 國 住 房 貸 款 抵 押 債 券 MBS ) 減 值 損 失 大 增 至 106.32 億 元 人 民 幣 , 雖 然 風 險 更 高 的 CDO 已 於 去 年 第 四 季 全 數 「 剝 離 」 , 但 MBS 條 數 始 終 唔 細 , 舊 事 重 提 , 又 搞 個 股 市 炸 彈 出 。

22 則留言:

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